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That fickle shrew Mother Nature has never had much love for the Cleveland Indians. She knocked down a late Jim Thome homerun in Game Four of the 1998 ALCS that most certainly changed Indians’ history. Tonight she dumped a boatload of rain early in the game to wash out the Indians’ best starter and force Manny Acta to ride the bullpen in the first game of what could be the Tribe’s last meaningful series of the year. At least the rain kept the midges away.

The Indians’ lips were blue after the two hour rain delay as they choked on their tongues, mustering no hits until a leadoff double in the bottom of the eighth by Jason Donald, which Manny Acta shrewdly turned into a busted suicide squeeze, almost ensuring his cruise plans in October will not be disrupted by pesky post season play. The Indians had a chance in the bottom of the eleventh, but Jason Kipnis’s long shot curved foul, and Travis Hafner popped weakly to future Hall of Famer Jhonny Peralta.

After that, the loss seemed inevitable, but not after more typical Indians’ offensive impotence in the twelfth. And the thirteenth. Then in the fourteenth, The Savior, who had struck out four times in the game, decided to take matters into his own hands — literally. Taking advantage of Jim Leyland’s decision to intentionally walk Carlos Santana to load the bases, Fukudome was hit in the hand to “drive” in the winning run.

The victory ensured that the game would not go down in the annals of Indians’ history as The Squeeze because Manny Acta decided to take the bat out of Michael Brantley’s hand in the eighth with a runner and third and no outs while facing a left handed pitcher. While that base/out situation is one of the few times when a suicide squeeze is acceptable, the play is a low percentage play that even when successful, usually ensures that only one run will score. An outside pitch with a left handed pitcher results in disaster.

Meanwhle, thanks to the impotent offense and the rain delay, the Tribe’s pen threw 183 pitches in the victory. The good news is that Shin-Soo Choo completed his second rehab game. He is hitless in those two games, meaning he will fit in nicely with the Indians offense.

Daily Picks

Halladay beat the Dodgers last night for an easy +100.

No bets for the day.

Season Total -415.

One for three yesterday. Grienke came through, but the Mariners’ offense did not, even though Hernandez pitched very well. The Indians’ total came up short, despite a Rangers’ five run inning. Loss for the day: -110.

Picks for tonight:

Halladay at -165 looks good– that is about it with the pitching matchups, and no totals are intriguing, so I’ll just go with the Phillies.

Season Total: -515

Six more people were ejected this weekend in MLB. Ned Yost and Alex Gordon were tossed by Rob Drake, who now has a league leading ejections. Gordon tossed his bat in a half assed fashion, but the toss had a bit of hang time, so Drake ran him. Yost went ballistic and will be a bit poorer as a result. Mike Muchlinski tossed three players in the Phillies/Giants brawl, which seems like a low amount considering the ferocity of the fracas. Umpire Brian Knight ran John Farrell for arguing a correct interference call on Friday. Muchlinski and Knight have long fuses — both are below average in career ejection rate.

First Pyro Assenmacher’s spirit invaded Cleveland Indians’ Chris Perez’s body in Texas this weekend, now Eric Plunk’s ghost entered Joe Smith’s frame in the bottom of the eight inning. Perez even looks like a younger, shaggier Assenmacher, and upon closer scrutiny, Smith has some similar traits as Plunk.

Look at those diabolical eye brows underneath Smith’s cap — very Plunk like. Those eyebrows scream “Ninth Inning, Game Three of the 1997 World Series.” Those eyebrows are concentrated pain. You know who else has arching, evil eyebrows? Chief Wahoo.

I had an epiphany in about Chief Wahoo during Game Six of the 2007 ALCS. I was in Scottsdale, and when Fausto Carmona gave up that grand slam to J.D. Drew, I motioned for the bartender at the Grapevine to give me the entire bottle of Grey Goose because I knew the season was over. After haggling over legalities and price, the old sot finally obliged. About halfway through that bottle, I realized that Chief Wahoo was no longer my friend. In fact, he had never been my friend, and he was smiling all the time because he was laughing at my pain. That night did not end well — the Beloved Nephew passed out before 7 PM, leaving me to wander Old Town alone, cursing the gods at the top of my lungs. How I did not go to jail that night is another one of life’s little mysteries.

But I digress. Larry Dolan needs to tap his St. Ignatius connections and have a priest meet the team at the airport and get busy on the tarmac. If Assenmacher and Plunk are around, Jose Mesa can’t be far behind. Hell, Alvin Morman and Chad Ogea have probably been invited to the party, although Ogea is certainly still hurt, so he can’t do much damage. If Tony Fernandez is around though…

Ouch — 0-3 yesterday (Yankees, Braves, and Giants’ total), staring this exercise at -405. Sabathia continued his woes against Boston (Cy Young my ass), and Hanson pitched like Li’l Bobby’s source about his penchant for cocaine is correct. Perhaps he was doing lines during the rain delay. Meanwhile, both pitchers were on in San Francisco, so that total was a bridge too far.

An inexperienced or undisciplined gambler would try to get all those losses back with a fell swoop of recklessness, but I will stay the course. I like Seattle and Hernandez at +105 today versus the Angels and Santana. Hernandez is coming off a bad start, and he rarely has two bad starts in a row. I also like the Brewers and Grienke at -170 against the pitiful Astros, who are fielding a very bad AAA team these days. I like the Indians’ total (9.5) going over because Tomlin is a gas can, plus the Indians’ offense has been rejuvenated with bad ass Jason Kipness. Umpire D.J Reyburn hasn’t been around long enough to have a good sample size, and even though he is trending so far as a pitcher’s umpire, that won’t help Tomlin.

Picks
Seattle +105
Milwaukee -170
Cleveland over 9.5 for -110

Season Total -405

Yesterday was a drinking day at my bar in my backyard for Li’l Bobby (aka the Aerodynamic Cue Ball) and me. I hit the brown booze pretty early in the day once I found out the Giants’ game was blacked out in Los Angeles so the damn Yankees/Red Sox rivalry could pollute my fair region. Drinking whiskey in the afternoon usually bubbles my creative juices, and yesterday was no exception.

The MLB Network was on one of the TVs, and a show about two guys traveling to every MLB ballpark was on. It really didn’t hold my interest because I knew that my travels were a helluva lot more interesting that these two guys. When Li’l Bobby professed he didn’t know who Vic Power was, a juggernaut of creative insight almost knocked me to my knees. I should have my own reality television show in which I travel across the land in a large van filled with coolers of beer with seven other friends, rehashing old baseball arguments that refuse to die.

Of course, some of the Jackalopes would be part of the trip, but I have many more friends than those degenerates, so the cast would not be limited to them. In fact, limiting the cast would be one of the hardest aspects of the show 9the other being ensuring the cast remains sober enough to make it to the games). The only way to appease my friends who did not make the cut would be guest appearances by those not in the main cast. Here is a brief description of the cast for Season One:

Myself — no explanation needed

Li’l Bobby — I have been to more baseball games with him than anyone on the planet. His drunken argument with JamesEarl about the merits of Phil Simms versus Brett Favre is still the funniest sports arguments of all time.

JamesEarl — the most refined of the bunch. He would add a dignity to make the show have enduring power — plus he is Bobby’s straight man, and he was part of the original Vic Power argument, which was the impetus for this show.

NotSam (John) — a Jackalope (the Ruggedly Handsome Snow Plow Driver) who initiated the Vic Power argument so long ago at Angels’ Stadium. Whether he gets all of us killed at each game would be one of the show’s subplots.

The Yard Gnome (Kenneth) — the master of self destruction in the Jackalopes. The initiator of absurd arguments, and the guy who used to unsucessfully try to drink a gallon of milk in an hour (part of the pilot).

Sir Jolters (Eric) — Kenneth’s foil and protector of Buddy Bell’s reputation.

Black 47 (Danny) — my brother who remains silent around me, but is a garrulous madman when I am not around. His battles with stadium ushers will be another hysterical subplot.

Finna (Jon) — the Jackalope who was left behind and designated navigator of the trip.

Reese — the uninitiated golfing buddy who has no idea what he just got himself into.

Guests of Season One: Miles, Rhoken, and Oz.

The pilot episode would start with Li’l Bobby attempting the gallon of milk in an hour thing (he swears it can’t be too hard). Once he is done retching, we’d be on the road, re-opening the never ending “Was Buddy Bell overrated?” debate. Of course, due to the coarse language, this show would have to air on HBO or Showtime. I am sure I will be hearing from their executives any day now.

I quit gambling seven years ago because I am an addict who began threatening the financial stability of my family. However, for many years I was successful enough in baseball to offset my losses for the year in other sports. That all changed once I was no longer able to maintain the discipline that is essential to be successful at betting baseball.

The key to betting baseball is to find a few confidence picks and stick only with those bets. If there are no confidence picks on a particular day, then do not bet that day. Unfortunately, I reached the point that every time I saw the lines for the day, I was compelled to bet Every. Single. Game. Left unchecked, I would have ended up like this pathetic guy:

The morbid fascination of gambling never leaves the addict, and I still recognize “sure things” in betting lines. Usually, those “sure things” do not come through, and I breath a deep sigh of relief, thankful that I don’t bet anymore. However, one of the most popular features of my Wildly Popular Other Blog back in the day was my “Picks of The Day” — I guess readers loved to watch me crash and burn (I was faux betting the entire sheet then). I’ve been studying umpire tendencies this season, and Good Lord, is that rather dry. To spice that up a bit, I am going to resurrect the Picks of the Day, focusing on confidence picks, and how umpire tendencies should influence those picks. I am going to start with a most $10,000 bank and keep the bets in the hundreds to see how long my bank lasts.

Two games jump out at me today (August 6th): The Yanks at -165 and the Braves at -130 (using Don Best’s lines). The -165 and -130 means I have to bet 165 dollars to win 100 dollars and 135 to win 100, so I am betting $295 total to win 200.

Starting pitching matchups are key in betting baseball. A team with a good starter is usually going to beat a a team with a bad starter. The dicey part is just how much do you have to pay to bet that starter. To me, Sabathia versus Lackey at -165 is a steal, even on the road. Lackey is awful — he wouldn’t even crack the Indians rotation.

Another key in betting baseball is run support a team will offer their starter. Jonathon Niese isn’t a bad pitcher, but the Met’s offense has been putrid since Carlos Beltran went to San Francisco to watch Orlando Cabrera make outs. I like getting Tommy Hanson at -130, even though my good friend L’il Bobby swears he has a source that Hanson likes to buy cocaine in large amounts.

Betting game totals (combined score) is another way to bet baseball game, and even before my addiction went full blown, there was not a total that didn’t intrigue me. However, the home plate umpire can often greatly influence a total. Four totals jumped out at me today (Cle 9.5, NYY 9, SF 6.5, and Toronto 9). Back in the day, I would have pounded all four — the Yankees might very well score nine runs alone against Lackey. However, only one of those games have an umpire that has career as an ump whose career Runs/Game are above average — the game with the two best pitchers (SF). I am going to refrain from betting the three other totals. I am going to go -110 on the Giants total, even though Hamel sand Cain are going in a pitchers’ park. 6.5 is a very low total, and Mike Winters is an umpire whose runs totals are higher than average.

So three bets today:

NYY -165
ATL -130
SF/Phi -110 over 6.5

Dave Burba and Paul Assenmacher’s evil twin, Pyro, pitched tonite for the Tribe. Burba was wearing Ubaldo Jimenez’s jersey, and Assenmacher was wearing Chris Perez’s jersey, and the results were late 1990’s. Burba failed to pitch well enough to put away a large lead, and Pyro gave up a gopher ball in the ninth that erased the Indians’ lead. To top it off, Matt LaPorta was possessed again, this time by Chuck Knoblauch. Somewhere, Jose Mesa is laughing.

“Fans have been whining about how I ruined the Golden Age of Indians’ baseball,” sneered owner Larry Dolan. “Well, we brought back those good old days and paid a helluva a lot more than Sean Casey to replicate the Jacobs’ era. How do you like them apples now? Only in Cleveland would losing two World Series be considered a golden era. You have an entire generation of fans embracing the ludicrous notion that the Browns of the late 80’s were a team of the ages. Because their dads told them how glorious Brown/Ryan/Kelly were, they try to do the same with Kosar/Slaughter/Golic because they fear the generation link (curse) will break. Well, enjoy the past, you fuckers.”

The Cleveland Indians erupted for fourteen hits to support Justin Masterson’s Quality Start, leaving Boston with a four game spit. The Indians had thirty-nine hits in the series — almost twenty percent of their hit totals in July. The Savior, Fukudome, even looked like he belonged in a Major League lineup, going three for five with a double. Meanwhile, Orlando Cabrera is batting a consistent .143/.143/.143 with the San Francisco Giants. It couldn’t happen to a nicer team.

Eric Bedard pitched for the Red Sox tonight. I wonder if they would like a do over on that Victor Martinez/Justin Masterson trade. The most encouraging thing about this series was Justin “Babe” Kipnis, who staked 3 HRs in the black heart of the Red Sox. The Indians could very well have another legitimate bat in the lineup and finally have broken their long positional player draft drought.

Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox saw their playoff chances obliterated this week, losing their series with the Yankees so badly that Bud Selig might implement the Mercy Rule next season. Maybe Ozzie Guillen should have worried less about Sean Penn. The Detroit Tigers lost also, meaning there is still a division race. However, the Indians are going to have to do better than managing splits, even on the road. Still, the split in Boston means the Indians still have a chance, postponing the annual forced march into the Plain Dealer’s Browns camp news.

There has been a sharp spike in ejections in Major League baseball in the past week — umpires have tossed thirteen players or managers. That is nine percent of the season total in the past seven calendar days.

Umpire Rob Drake, the recipient of the Yadier Molina spittle fest, raised his league leading total to seven this week when Molina went bat shit insane, but the King of the Heave, Bob Davidson, caught him tonight when he ejected Cubs’ right fielder Tyler Colvin and manager Mike Quade. Davidson is an old timer that probably spends his off days setting booby traps in his lawn to keep away neighborhood kids while yelling, “This house will not negotiate with terrorists!”

Coming into this season, Davidson’s ejection rate was twice the MLB norm. He ejected eleven people last year (led the league), including a fan. When it comes to calling balls and strikes, Davidson is about as middle as the road as they come — his career W/9 IP and K/9 are both right around league average. However, Davidson does not play well with others. Indians’ fans might remember Davidson as the umpire involved in Eric Wedge’s more epic ejection. Drake ejected Manny Acta this May, but Drake is not known for a quick trigger these days, although early in his career when he was a call up umpire, he ran more than a few people.

So far this year, 147 players or managers have been ejected by umpires. Last year, the final tally was 203. Right now, umpires are on pace to eject about 10-15 more players/managers than last year. I blame steroids and Frank McCourt.

Even though the Cleveland Indians lost again in late innings, perhaps falling out of the division race before Ubaldo Jimenez even takes the mound, they dodged a fatal bullet this Wednesday when Matt Stairs retired. “I am crushed,” said a mournful Chris Antonetti. “He would have been the perfect complement for our anemic bench and would fill the veteran presence hole I created when I finally gave up on Orlando Cabrera. Austin Kearns and Stairs would have been a bitchin’ platoon. Neither one can field or hit anymore, but they have name recognition.”

On another note, the Baseball Hall of Fame’s Veterans’ Committee announced it was electing Drew Pomeranz into the Hall this week in a special election. “It is just a matter of time anyway,” said a member who wanted to remain anonymous. “Now that he is out of Cleveland, his immortality is inevitable.”

Four home runs. Four doubles. Five singles. A victory in Fenway, despite a train wreck start from Josh Tomlin. A respite from the brink — for a day at least. Plus, Arnold and Maria were out in public together. All hail John Lackey, the savior of silent bats!

Astrubal Cabrera hit two of the Tribes home runs, but the news of the night was that the Indians received power from their other middle infield position as Jason Kipnis ripped two doubles and hit a home run. In a single game, Kipnis raised his OPS .245 points. Meanwhile, Orlando Cabrera picked up his first and only hit for the Giants.

On a different note, the key witness in the Bryan Stow beating case died from a supposed allergic reaction to nuts in a salad. I seriously doubt if some unsavory characters from Rialto had the pull to take out a witness in the Bay Area, but this case is surreal. Speaking of surreal, albeit a much different type, Carlos Guillen took a commanding lead in the Asshat of The Year award yesterday in Detroit. Most involved in the chippiness behaved poorly, but Gullien displayed unprecedented jackassery in his taunting of Jered Weaver.

Hey, Justin Verlander, if you don’t like bunting in your no hit bid, field the bunt cleanly and don’t throw the ball into the outfield.