Daily Picks

I quit gambling seven years ago because I am an addict who began threatening the financial stability of my family. However, for many years I was successful enough in baseball to offset my losses for the year in other sports. That all changed once I was no longer able to maintain the discipline that is essential to be successful at betting baseball.

The key to betting baseball is to find a few confidence picks and stick only with those bets. If there are no confidence picks on a particular day, then do not bet that day. Unfortunately, I reached the point that every time I saw the lines for the day, I was compelled to bet Every. Single. Game. Left unchecked, I would have ended up like this pathetic guy:

The morbid fascination of gambling never leaves the addict, and I still recognize “sure things” in betting lines. Usually, those “sure things” do not come through, and I breath a deep sigh of relief, thankful that I don’t bet anymore. However, one of the most popular features of my Wildly Popular Other Blog back in the day was my “Picks of The Day” — I guess readers loved to watch me crash and burn (I was faux betting the entire sheet then). I’ve been studying umpire tendencies this season, and Good Lord, is that rather dry. To spice that up a bit, I am going to resurrect the Picks of the Day, focusing on confidence picks, and how umpire tendencies should influence those picks. I am going to start with a most $10,000 bank and keep the bets in the hundreds to see how long my bank lasts.

Two games jump out at me today (August 6th): The Yanks at -165 and the Braves at -130 (using Don Best’s lines). The -165 and -130 means I have to bet 165 dollars to win 100 dollars and 135 to win 100, so I am betting $295 total to win 200.

Starting pitching matchups are key in betting baseball. A team with a good starter is usually going to beat a a team with a bad starter. The dicey part is just how much do you have to pay to bet that starter. To me, Sabathia versus Lackey at -165 is a steal, even on the road. Lackey is awful — he wouldn’t even crack the Indians rotation.

Another key in betting baseball is run support a team will offer their starter. Jonathon Niese isn’t a bad pitcher, but the Met’s offense has been putrid since Carlos Beltran went to San Francisco to watch Orlando Cabrera make outs. I like getting Tommy Hanson at -130, even though my good friend L’il Bobby swears he has a source that Hanson likes to buy cocaine in large amounts.

Betting game totals (combined score) is another way to bet baseball game, and even before my addiction went full blown, there was not a total that didn’t intrigue me. However, the home plate umpire can often greatly influence a total. Four totals jumped out at me today (Cle 9.5, NYY 9, SF 6.5, and Toronto 9). Back in the day, I would have pounded all four — the Yankees might very well score nine runs alone against Lackey. However, only one of those games have an umpire that has career as an ump whose career Runs/Game are above average — the game with the two best pitchers (SF). I am going to refrain from betting the three other totals. I am going to go -110 on the Giants total, even though Hamel sand Cain are going in a pitchers’ park. 6.5 is a very low total, and Mike Winters is an umpire whose runs totals are higher than average.

So three bets today:

NYY -165
ATL -130
SF/Phi -110 over 6.5