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Saturday’s results: +100. No bets Sunday because I was wiped out after drinking until three in the morning with James Powell. Season total -640.

Today’s picks: Braves (Hudson) -165 over the Giants.

Cards/Pirates over 8.5

Tigers/Twins over 8.5

The Society For American Baseball Research (SABR) turned forty this week, meaning that SABR is much younger than the average age of its members. I joined SABR this year for the first time, mainly so I wouldn’t feel too bad about crashing the convention in Long Beach. I wanted to meet (drink) with some of the baseball writers I had been reading for the past two decades in hopes that I would be inspired to start blogging about baseball again.

One of the first informal discussions I was part of in the hotel lobby was about what SABR offered to its members. I had been a SABR member for about four days at that point, so I mostly just nodded during the discussion. Chris Dial, a guy I have respected greatly for many years because of his work on defensive metrics and his humor on Baseball Think Factory, succintly nailed what SABR offers to people — a religion.

Baseball is indeed a religion (hence the name of this blog). It might not save our mortal soul, but it offers spiritual growth. Most importantly, it is enduring, meaning we can embrace it anytime we want. However, baseball, like God/Buddha/the Great Pumpkin, is often too large of an entity to offer intimate experiences, which is where church communities fill a need. SABR offers a lasting church for the baseball religious.

All baseball fraternities are churches, but all baseball fraternities are not enduring. The Jackalopes might have ben the greatest baseball fraternity of all time, but they faded away meekly before they even had time to brilliantly burn out. The DSEC was a unique collection of souls, but it fell apart after Lee’s death. SABR endures when one of its members passes.

Dial mentioned that the SABR membership dues were tithes its members paid to feel good about their church. We pay our money, thankful we are part of that church — a church that will be there next year, and the next, and the next… The Jackalopes paid their tithes with blood and parts of their soul; the DSEC paid with their livers. Compared to that, SABR’s tithes are dirt cheap, although the liver takes at hit at the yearly convention.

Part of re-starting my baseball writing journey has been reminiscing about the past. I was fortunate to have some great runs with great groups of people. One common aspect of each reflection is that I thought those groups would last forever. They didn’t. Sure, we remain friends, but those fraternities are broken. SABR is too large and strong to be broken by distance or death.

One epiphany I had at SABR 41 was how similar the new group of guys I was hanging with was to the old groups (SABR doesn’t have a Miles, but there is only one Miles). I guess that isn’t surprising — baseball is the common denominator. While SABR will probably never match the ferocity of the Jackalopes or the genuine affection of the DSEC, I could immediately tell I could hang with these guys for a long time, which is what religion boils down to anyway. Saving one’s soul from eternal hellfire is secondary in even the most puritan church; sense of community is why people drag their asses out of bed to go to services.

Cocktail hour is calling, so I am going to cut this short for now. However, this is something I feel strongly about, so I will return to it in the near future.

Kosuke Fukudome was brought to Cleveland to be the savior of the Indians’ pathetic offense. Since he has very little power, for him to deliver salvation, he needs to get on base on a brisk clip, and he certainly has not been doing that. Not only is he only batting just .241, but as the astute commentor James Powell noted, he has only drawn once in a Tribe uniform. The question is why has a guy who was drawing walks at a 13.3% rate with the Cubs would drop to a 1.3% with the Indians.

While we have a very small sample size (61 plate appearances), examination of the data presents a solid supposition as to why Fukudome’s walk totals have plummeted as an Indian. First off, he is swinging at more pitches — his Percentage of Pitches Swung At is 46%, up from the 36% with the Cubs and the 39% for his career. Over his time with the Tribe, that is about 24 more pitches he has taken a cut at. He is swinging at more first pitches as an Indian (39%) than a Cub this year (19%) — that is about 10 more first pitch swings over 61 plate appearances. Perhaps as a result of this, he isn’t getting to many very good hitters counts — he has only had one 3-0 count as an Indian, only six 2-0 counts, and only three 3-1 counts, all much lower than as a Cub. Chances are he just isn’t seeing as many balls outside the zone as AL pitchers are pounding the zone because they just do not fear Antonetti’s Savior.

The other thing that really leaps out is that in 31 of Fukudome’s 61 plate appearances, runners have been on base, 19 in scoring position. I would bet that Fukudome is expanding his zone, trying to make things happen. He feels the asshats behind him are incapable of driving in runs, so he has to do it himself. In other words, he is not using his skill sets wisely. It doesn’t help that resident genius Manny Acta is batting him in the six hole, basically repeating the same mistake he made with Orlando Cabrera (except Fukudome has the ability to get on base while The Out Maker didn’t). Chisenhall and LaPorta have much higher slugging percentages and would be better suited to drive in the runners on base. If they don’t, they Tribe would at least have a high OBP guy starting the next inning. Fukudome would be much better suited batting eighth where he could use his sill sets to get on base more and set the table for the front of the lineup. At the least, he’d be stretching the lineup more in the eighth spot.

Fraud Hollandsworth popped off about Aramis Ramirez not being a good influence on young players. Hollandsworth is cable analyst for the Cubs. Who thought that would be a good idea? Just what does Fraud know about baseball, other than he wasn’t very good?

Meanwhile, baseball had another epic meltdown this season when Carlos Zambrano flipped out, was tossed from the game, cleaned out his locker and announced his retirement. My prediction is that he will be a Yankee within a week.

It seems some wiccans are upset with the accuracy of a witch in HBO’s True Blood. I suppose the character issn’t batshit crazy enough to be “true” witch.

The Dodgers are challenging parts of the Brian Stow lawsuit, including the relevance of “all allegations relating to gang activity at Dodger Stadium and purportedly rough neighborhoods surrounding the stadium.” Considering the guys who supposedly committed the beating are from Rialto, the Dodgers have a point about the rough neighborhoods around the stadium.

Daily Picks

+65 yesterday — first day of the week in the black.

Angels -125
Seattle +125
Brewers over 9
Tigers over 9
Rangers over 7.5

Season Total -740

“I am very happy we won tonight,” said Cleveland Indian Kosuke Fukudome through a translator, “but I am still very confused about many things. Why would my manager bat Shin-Soo Choo leadoff? The guy is just coming off the DL and hasn’t played for a long time. When he was playing, he wasn’t exactly tearing it up. I guess because I cannot hit AL pitching that I am not the correct choice. I am also confused how a city that has the Rock ‘N Roll Hall of Fame does not appreciate Bruce Springsteen’s The Promise.

“The title track is the most crushing song Springsteen has ever written, a song about the desolation of unfulfilled dreams, a perfect fit for this city. Breakaway is about the severe price of cutting unhealthy ties for sheer survival, lesson that many here need to learn. The rest of the work is pretty much pop songs. If you mention Springsteen in this town, all people want to talk about is the Allen Theater in 1976 or the Agora show on the Darkness tour. If you speculate about Springsteen releasing The Promise either right before or after Darkness, people look at you like you are from another country. However, the burning question remains — what if Springsteen has become a pop star in the late 1970’s? No one around here even wants to ponder that question.”

-100 yesterday because the Brewers couldn’t hit with runners on base. Season total -815 — I am not very good at this. However, I am going to get well on Zack Greinke at -145 tonight — an absolute steal. The Brewers are very good at home, and the Pirates are terrible in Milwaukee. I ma going to double down on the Brewers — 290 to win 200. I like Cain and the Giants at -135 also, ahd the over 9.0 in the O’s/Tigers game.

Asdrubal Cabrera tried to go all Tony Pena Headslap on Carlos Santana in the dugout of Thursday’s Cleveland Indians’ game with the Detroit Tigers. Unlike the docile Jose Mesa, who used to just wince and endure Pena’s physical abuse, Carlos Santana was having none of Cabrera’s tough love. I am sure the conversation went something like this:

Cabrera: You need to get your ass off the bag and catch the damn ball.

Santana: Sure thing; I’ll get on that. In the meantime, why don’t you fuckers learn how to throw?

Cabrera: What?

Santana: You heard me. Learn to throw, all of you. I am tired of having to try to bail you guys out, especially you. Do you know how many throwing errors you have this season? Six.

Cabrera: You can’t talk to me like that! I am an All Star, and now I am asserting my leadership under the public eye! This is my moment!

Santana: Why don’t you lead by fielding better?

Cabrera: What? Don’t you know how many times I have made the highlight reels this year?

Santana: So what? How about some substance over flash? Your UZR is -5.2 so far this year. That is twentieth in the league. You only have a .807 RZR — eighteenth in the league. Dewan and Bill James’ system has below average also. Every system does.

Cabrera: You know I hate when you use those acronyms I —

Santana: They are initialisms, not acronyms, and they say you aren’t that good with your glove. Learn the language, or you will never lead in this white man’s world.

Cabrera: When all those people in the stands cheer, that says I am good!

Santana: Those are the same numbnuts who think Omar Vizquel was the defensive equivalent of Ozzie Smith. Look, you are weak at going to your right, and you don’t exactly tear up the soft stuff staright at you because you play deep so you can cheat to your left so you make the damn highlight reel.

Cabrera: I think it is time I beat your ass!

Santana: Save your bravado. Look, I can’t throw very well either. However, you don’t always make the effort to prevent my errant throws from sailing into center field. I don’t call you out on it in the dugout, so get the hell out of my face.

Perez: Guys, guys, guys! This is a organziational structure flaw. Management gave us that white guy who can’t hit or field to play first base, plus our backup catcher hits at a replacement level. Save your wrath for Antonetti come contract negotiation time.

Crushing day yesterday, losing three hundred. In retrospect, betting the Angel was both lazy and moronic. The Texas bet was sane; who knew that the Rangers would only score three runs against a meatball starter? That is why they call it gambling.

Season Total -715

Two pitching matchups look good to me tonight — Buehrle (WSox) at -145 against Tillman (O’s) and Gallardo (Brewers) +110 against Carpenter (Cards). I also like the over 7.5 in the Brewers game.

The Cleveland Indians had more hits tonight (18) than points the 2010 Cleveland Browns averaged per game (16.9). The Indians ten runs even surpassed the peak of the Browns’ penalties per game (7.1) in the Romeo Crennel era.

While Indians’ fans are certainly aglow with Jason Kipnis’s monster performance, The Savior, Kosuke Fukudome, went three for five with two doubles. “I think I am finally transitioning to this city,” Fukudome said through a translator. “In Chicago, the fans were drunk and happy. Here, the fans are drunk and angry. Even the empty seats seem very mad. However, the way the fans have embraced Kipness has inspired me. Their clever play of words on LeBron James’ old marketing slogan (We are all Kipnesses!) illustrates they can carry a torch long after the love is gone. Sure, LeBron is gone, but underneath all that bluster, they just can’t let go. They unwittingly show him homage by slapping his old slogan on their new hero. Unrequited love is a beautiful human trait, thus the people of Cleveland are beautiful. I can only hope one day that I will be an object of their affections.”

Angels +165 — a reckless bet, but the Yankees have a reputation of strugglign against guys just called up. I should research that, but that would require effort, and my time is money, dammit!

Texas -200 — a steep price for Holland, but Texas should bomb Vargas.